Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on...?

    No release by November 30 leads by 62 pts · 2 outcomes at 5%+

    1. No release by November 30#168%
    2. November 17#26%
    3. November 15#35%
    Resolves
    Nov 30, 2026
    Volume
    $44.5K
    24h
    $5.6K
    Outcomes
    19
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US1 venue · 29 markets

    Who’s winning

    • No release by November 3068%
    • November 176%
    • November 155%
    • November 284%
    • November 184%
    Polymarket USPolymarket USCFTC-regulated

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    Signals

    3 signals
    1. No release by November 3024h
      ▼ 8¢ in 24hPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US
    2. November 1524h
      ▼ 4¢ in 24hPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US
    3. November 2824h
      ▼ 4¢ in 24hPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US

    Every outcome, every venue

    1 venue
    ChanceBest
    No release by November 30$29.3K vol68%▼ 8Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US68¢69¢ after fees
    November 17$270 vol6%▼ 2Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US8¢8¢ after fees
    November 15$444 vol5%▼ 4Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US9¢9¢ after fees
    November 28$1.3K vol4%▼ 4Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US8¢9¢ after fees
    November 18$341 vol4%▲ 4Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US8¢8¢ after fees
    November 24$415 vol4%▲ 2Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US7¢7¢ after fees
    November 14$726 vol3%—Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US6¢6¢ after fees
    November 21$388 vol3%▼ 3Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US6¢6¢ after fees
    November 25$486 vol3%▼ 2Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US6¢6¢ after fees
    November 16$393 vol3%▼ 2Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US5¢6¢ after fees

    Yes pays $1 if it’s right. Chance is the venues’ consensus; green marks the cheapest venue after fees, and every price opens that venue’s market.

    Smart money

    Biggest trades

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    In the news

    About this market

    Category
    Culture
    Resolves
    Mon, November 30, 2026
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USCompared across 1 venue

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