Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on...? — November 17

    8% chance

    Yes8%Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USYes14¢14¢ after fees
    No92%Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USNo99¢99¢ after fees
    Resolves
    Nov 17, 2026
    Volume
    $335
    24h
    $15
    Liquidity
    $1.5K
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USListed on 1 venue

    Chance over time

    Polymarket USPolymarket USCFTC-regulated

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    Signals

    Quiet market: no big moves or venue gaps in the last 24 hours.

    Every venue’s price

    1 venue
    ChanceBest
    Yes8%—Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US14¢14¢ after fees
    No92%—Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US99¢99¢ after fees

    Each share pays $1 if it’s right. Green marks the cheapest venue after fees; every price opens that venue’s market.

    Before you trade

    Fee Impact at These Prices

    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarketat 14¢: exit costs ~0.48¢/contract
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    How each venue settles it

    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarket (global)

    This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or highe…

    Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗

    About this market

    Category
    Culture
    Resolves
    Tue, November 17, 2026
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USCompared across 1 venue

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