Next Brazilian Minister of Foreign Affairs?

    Mauro Vieira leads by 31 pts · 6 candidates at 5%+

    1. Mauro Vieira#150%
    2. Maurício Lyrio#219%
    3. Aloizio Mercadante#39%
    Resolves
    Jul 1, 2027
    Volume
    $4.9K
    24h
    $136
    Liquidity
    $7.8K
    Candidates
    8
    kalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US2 venues · 8 markets

    Who’s winning

    • Mauro Vieira50%
    • Maurício Lyrio19%
    • Aloizio Mercadante9%
    • Fernando Haddad6%
    • Celso Amorim5%
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    Signals

    4 signals
    1. Mauro Vieira24h
      ▼ 4¢ in 24hkalshi
    2. Maurício Lyrio24h
      ▼ 4¢ in 24hkalshi
    3. Fernando Haddad24h
      ▼ 4¢ in 24hkalshi
    4. Maria Laura da Rocha24h
      5¢ apart across venuesPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USkalshi

    Every candidate, every venue

    2 venues
    ChanceBest
    Mauro Vieira$661 vol50%▼ 4kalshi55¢57¢ after fees
    Maurício Lyrio$0 vol19%▼ 4kalshi24¢26¢ after fees
    Aloizio Mercadante$871 vol9%▲ 1kalshi8¢9¢ after fees
    Fernando Haddad$144 vol6%▼ 4kalshi11¢12¢ after fees
    Celso Amorim$1.4K vol5%▼ 4kalshi7¢8¢ after fees
    Simone Tebet$0 vol5%▼ 3kalshi9¢10¢ after fees
    Jaques Wagner$991 vol5%▼ 4Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US9¢no fee
    Maria Laura da Rocha$848 vol · 5¢ apart3%▼ 2kalshi8¢9¢ after fees

    Yes pays $1 if it’s right. Chance is the venues’ consensus; green marks the cheapest venue after fees, and every price opens that venue’s market.

    Where venues disagree

    Yes price
    • Maria Laura da Rocha5¢buy kalshi
    • Aloizio Mercadante3¢buy kalshi
    • Polymarket (global)
    • Kalshi
    • Consensus

    Same candidate, different price: buy where it’s cheapest.

    Smart money

    Biggest trades

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    In the news

    How each venue settles it

    kalshiKalshi

    If Mauro Vieira formally takes office as Minister of Foreign Affairs as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Brazilian general election before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Full rules on Kalshi ↗
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarket (global)

    This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Brazilian Minister of Foreign Affairs (Ministro das Relações Exteriores) in the government of the President of Brazil whose term begins on January 5, 2027. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed to that government by the President of Brazil. An individual serving as Minister of Foreign Affairs at the end of the previou…

    Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗

    About this market

    This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Brazilian Minister of Foreign Affairs (Ministro das Relações Exteriores) in the government of the President of Brazil whose term begins on January 5, 2027. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed to that government by the President of Brazil. An individual serving as Minister of Foreign Affairs at the end of the previous term who is reappointed or retained in that position at the start of the new term will count as assuming office in that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of Foreign Affairs will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution. The individual must be appointed as “Minister of Foreign Affairs” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor. If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of Foreign Affairs are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order. If no such Minister of Foreign Affairs assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

    Category
    Politics
    Resolves
    Thu, July 1, 2027
    kalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USCompared across 2 venues

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