Weather

    Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

    At least 2 leads by 4 pts · 2 outcomes at 5%+

    1. At least 2#19%
    2. At least 3#25%
    3. At least 1#35%
    Resolves
    Mar 31, 2027
    Volume
    $169.9K
    24h
    $112
    Liquidity
    $3.3K
    Outcomes
    3
    kalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US2 venues · 3 markets

    Who’s winning

    • At least 29%
    • At least 35%
    • At least 15%
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    Signals

    1 signal
    1. At least 124h
      17¢ apart across venuesPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USkalshi

    Every outcome, every venue

    2 venues
    ChanceBest
    At least 2$4.4K vol9%▼ 1kalshi10¢11¢ after fees
    At least 3$12.3K vol5%▼ 1kalshi8¢9¢ after fees
    At least 1$153.2K vol · 17¢ apart5%▼ 1kalshi23¢25¢ after fees

    Yes pays $1 if it’s right. Chance is the venues’ consensus; green marks the cheapest venue after fees, and every price opens that venue’s market.

    Where venues disagree

    Yes price
    • Polymarket (global)
    • Kalshi
    • Consensus

    Same outcome, different price: buy where it’s cheapest.

    Smart money

    Biggest trades

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    In the news

    How each venue settles it

    kalshiKalshi

    If the number of VEI4 volcanic eruptions worldwide with a GVP-attributed start in 2026 is at least 1, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Full rules on Kalshi ↗
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarket (global)

    This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the p…

    Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗

    About this market

    This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus. Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.

    Category
    Culture
    Resolves
    Wed, March 31, 2027
    kalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USCompared across 2 venues

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