Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? — At least 2

9% chance

Yes9%

Buy Yes10¢11¢ after fees

No91%

Buy No93¢94¢ after fees

Listed on 1 venue

Chance over time

Yes price, by venue

Polymarket USCFTC-regulated

Deposit $10, get $25

Trading bonus for new sign-ups.

Sponsored · We may earn a commission · 18+ · Trade responsibly · 1-800-GAMBLER

Quiet market: no big moves or venue gaps in the last 24 hours.

1 venue

Chance

Best

Yes9%—10¢

10¢11¢ after fees

No92%—93¢

93¢94¢ after fees

Each share pays $1 if it’s right. Green marks the cheapest venue after fees; every price opens that venue’s market.

Kalshiat 10¢: exit costs ~1¢/contract on a 1-contract order, rounded up to 1¢

Kalshi

If the number of VEI4 volcanic eruptions worldwide with a GVP-attributed start in 2026 is at least 2, then the market resolves to Yes.