Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? — At least 1
5% chance · down 1 pts today
- Resolves
- Mar 31, 2027
- Volume
- $153.2K
- 24h
- $96
- Liquidity
- $3.1K
Listed on 2 venuesChance over time
Yes price, by venuePolymarket USCFTC-regulatedDeposit $10, get $25
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Signals
1 signal- Yes24h18¢ apart across venues
Every venue’s price
2 venuesEach share pays $1 if it’s right. Green marks the cheapest venue after fees; every price opens that venue’s market.
Before you trade
Fee Impact at These Prices
Polymarketat 6¢: exit costs ~0.3¢/contractKalshiat 24¢: exit costs ~2¢/contract on a 1-contract order, rounded up to 1¢How each venue settles it
Kalshi
If the number of VEI4 volcanic eruptions worldwide with a GVP-attributed start in 2026 is at least 1, then the market resolves to Yes.
Full rules on Kalshi ↗Polymarket (global)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the p…
Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗About this market
- Category
- Culture
- Resolves
- Wed, March 31, 2027
Compared across 2 venuesIn the news
Discussion
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