Congress

    Lisa Murkowski leaves the Republican Party in 2026?

    Haley Stevens leads by 10 pts · 3 candidates at 5%+

    1. Haley Stevens#119%
    2. Thomas Massie#29%
    3. Lisa Murkowski#38%
    #4 John Fetterman5%#5 Don Bacon4%+1 more
    Resolves
    Dec 31, 2026
    Volume
    $201.9K
    24h
    $3.8K
    Liquidity
    $11.3K
    Candidates
    6
    kalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US2 venues · 6 markets

    Who’s winning

    • Haley Stevens19%
    • Thomas Massie9%
    • Lisa Murkowski8%
    • John Fetterman5%
    • Don Bacon4%
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    Signals

    3 signals
    1. Thomas Massie24h
      ▼ 7¢ in 24hkalshi
    2. Haley Stevens24h
      ▼ 4¢ in 24hkalshi
    3. Lisa Murkowski24h
      ▼ 3¢ in 24hkalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US

    Every candidate, every venue

    2 venues
    ChanceBest
    Haley Stevens$14.4K vol19%▼ 4kalshi20¢22¢ after fees
    Thomas Massie$17.3K vol9%▼ 7kalshi10¢11¢ after fees
    Lisa Murkowski$77.1K vol8%▼ 3kalshi10¢11¢ after fees
    John Fetterman$72.3K vol5%▼ 1kalshi6¢7¢ after fees
    Don Bacon$10.8K vol4%▼ 3kalshi7¢8¢ after fees
    Henry Cuellar$9.9K vol4%▼ 3kalshi6¢7¢ after fees

    Yes pays $1 if it’s right. Chance is the venues’ consensus; green marks the cheapest venue after fees, and every price opens that venue’s market.

    Where venues disagree

    Yes price
    • Lisa Murkowski3¢buy kalshi
    • Kalshi
    • Polymarket (global)
    • Consensus

    Same candidate, different price: buy where it’s cheapest.

    Smart money

    Biggest trades

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    In the news

    How each venue settles it

    kalshiKalshi

    If Lisa Murkowski leaves, announces that they are leaving, or is expelled from the Republican party before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Full rules on Kalshi ↗
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarket (global)

    This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lisa Murkowski leaves, or announces that she is leaving, the Republican Party by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official announcement from Murkowski that she will leave the Republican Party, join a separate party, or become an independent within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, regardless…

    Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗

    About this market

    This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lisa Murkowski leaves, or announces that she is leaving, the Republican Party by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official announcement from Murkowski that she will leave the Republican Party, join a separate party, or become an independent within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, regardless of when the announced party switch is intended to take effect or whether Murkowski intends to continue caucusing with the Republican Party. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Lisa Murkowski; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

    Category
    Politics
    Resolves
    Thu, December 31, 2026
    kalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USCompared across 2 venues

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