Lisa Murkowski leaves the Republican Party in 2026?

Lisa Murkowski leaves the Republican Party in 2026? — Thomas Massie

9% chance

Yes9%

Buy Yes10¢11¢ after fees

No91%

Buy No93¢94¢ after fees

Resolves: Sep 18, 2026
Volume: $17.3K
24h: $1.4K

Listed on 1 venue

Chance over time

Yes price, by venue

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Signals

Quiet market: no big moves or venue gaps in the last 24 hours.

Every venue’s price

1 venue

Chance

Best

Yes9%—10¢

10¢11¢ after fees

No91%—93¢

93¢94¢ after fees

Each share pays $1 if it’s right. Green marks the cheapest venue after fees; every price opens that venue’s market.

Before you trade

Fee Impact at These Prices

Kalshiat 10¢: exit costs ~1¢/contract on a 1-contract order, rounded up to 1¢

Full calculator

How each venue settles it

Kalshi

If Thomas Massie leaves, announces that they are leaving, or is expelled from the Republican party before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules on Kalshi ↗

About this market

Category: Politics
Event: Lisa Murkowski leaves the Republican Party in 2026?
Resolves: Fri, September 18, 2026