Lisa Murkowski leaves the Republican Party in 2026?

Lisa Murkowski leaves the Republican Party in 2026? — Lisa Murkowski

8% chance · down 3 pts today

Yes8%▼ 3

Buy Yes10¢11¢ after fees

No92%▲ 3

Buy No93¢94¢ after fees

Resolves: Dec 31, 2026
Volume: $77.1K
24h: $1.2K
Liquidity: $11.3K

Listed on 2 venues

Chance over time

Yes price, by venue

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Signals

1 signal

Yes24h
▼ 3¢ in 24h

Every venue’s price

2 venues

Chance

Best

Yes8%▼ 310¢13¢

10¢11¢ after fees

No92%▲ 393¢88¢

93¢94¢ after fees

Each share pays $1 if it’s right. Green marks the cheapest venue after fees; every price opens that venue’s market.

Before you trade

Fee Impact at These Prices

Kalshiat 10¢: exit costs ~1¢/contract on a 1-contract order, rounded up to 1¢

Polymarketat 13¢: exit costs ~0.45¢/contract

Full calculator

How each venue settles it

Kalshi

If Lisa Murkowski leaves, announces that they are leaving, or is expelled from the Republican party before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Polymarket (global)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lisa Murkowski leaves, or announces that she is leaving, the Republican Party by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official announcement from Murkowski that she will leave the Republican Party, join a separate party, or become an independent within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, regardless…

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About this market

Category: Politics
Event: Lisa Murkowski leaves the Republican Party in 2026?
Resolves: Thu, December 31, 2026