Geopolitics

    Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

    December 31, 2027 leads by 15 pts · 3 candidates at 5%+

    1. December 31, 2027#134%
    2. June 30, 2027#219%
    3. March 31, 2027#39%
    #4 December 312%
    Resolves
    Dec 31, 2027
    Volume
    $440.8K
    24h
    $341
    Candidates
    4
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US1 venue · 4 markets

    Who’s winning

    • December 31, 202734%
    • June 30, 202719%
    • March 31, 20279%
    • December 312%
    Polymarket USPolymarket USCFTC-regulated

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    Signals

    Quiet market: no big moves or venue gaps in the last 24 hours.

    Every candidate, every venue

    1 venue
    ChanceBest
    December 31, 2027$137.6K vol34%—Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US34¢no fee
    June 30, 2027$9.0K vol19%▼ 1Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US20¢no fee
    March 31, 2027$10.8K vol9%—Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US9¢no fee
    December 31$283.3K vol2%—Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US2¢no fee

    Yes pays $1 if it’s right. Chance is the venues’ consensus; green marks the cheapest venue after fees, and every price opens that venue’s market.

    Smart money

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    In the news

    About this market

    Category
    Politics
    Resolves
    Fri, December 31, 2027
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USCompared across 1 venue

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