Science & Tech

    How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

    4 leads by 56 pts · 3 outcomes at 5%+

    1. 4#182%
    2. 5#226%
    3. 5-6#313%
    #4 22%#5 81%+12 more
    Resolves
    Dec 31, 2026
    Volume
    $636.9K
    24h
    $14.6K
    Liquidity
    $36.8K
    Outcomes
    17
    kalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US2 venues · 17 markets

    Who’s winning

    • 482%
    • 526%
    • 5-613%
    • 22%
    • 81%
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    Signals

    4 signals
    1. 524h
      ▼ 8¢ in 24hkalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US
    2. 5-624h
      ▼ 8¢ in 24hPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US
    3. 424h
      ▲ 3¢ in 24hkalshi
    4. 524h
      72¢ apart across venueskalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US

    Every outcome, every venue

    2 venues
    ChanceBest
    4$18.3K vol82%▲ 3kalshi83¢84¢ after fees
    5$134.5K vol · 72¢ apart26%▼ 8kalshi19¢21¢ after fees
    5-6$122.0K vol13%▼ 8Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US14¢14¢ after fees
    2$6.6K vol2%▼ 2kalshi4¢5¢ after fees
    8$2.6K vol1%▼ 1kalshi2¢3¢ after fees
    9$1.3K vol1%▼ 1kalshi2¢3¢ after fees
    1 or below$6.1K vol1%▼ 1kalshi2¢3¢ after fees
    3$14.4K vol1%▼ 2kalshi1¢2¢ after fees
    7$8.7K vol1%▼ 2kalshi1¢2¢ after fees
    6$17.0K vol1%▼ 1kalshi1¢2¢ after fees

    Yes pays $1 if it’s right. Chance is the venues’ consensus; green marks the cheapest venue after fees, and every price opens that venue’s market.

    Where venues disagree

    Yes price
    • Kalshi
    • Polymarket (global)
    • Consensus

    Same outcome, different price: buy where it’s cheapest.

    Smart money

    Biggest trades

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    In the news

    How each venue settles it

    kalshiKalshi

    If exactly 5 Starship launches reach Space in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Full rules on Kalshi ↗
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarket (global)

    This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an exp…

    Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗

    About this market

    This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

    Category
    Culture
    Resolves
    Thu, December 31, 2026
    kalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USCompared across 2 venues

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