How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026? — <5

75% chance · down 12 pts today

Yes75%▼ 12

Buy Yes35¢37¢ after fees

No25%▲ 12

Buy No80¢82¢ after fees

Resolves: Dec 31, 2026
Volume: $131.2K
24h: $258
Liquidity: $418

Listed on 2 venues

Chance over time

Yes price, by venue

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Signals

2 signals

Yes24h
▼ 12¢ in 24h
Yes24h
46¢ apart across venues

Every venue’s price

2 venues

Chance

Best

Yes75%▼ 1235¢81¢

35¢37¢ after fees

No25%▲ 1280¢31¢

80¢82¢ after fees

Each share pays $1 if it’s right. Green marks the cheapest venue after fees; every price opens that venue’s market.

Before you trade

Fee Impact at These Prices

Kalshiat 35¢: exit costs ~2¢/contract on a 1-contract order, rounded up to 1¢

Polymarketat 81¢: exit costs ~0.62¢/contract

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How each venue settles it

Kalshi

If exactly 5 Starship launches reach Space in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Polymarket (global)

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an exp…

Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗

About this market

Category: Culture
Event: How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
Resolves: Thu, December 31, 2026