Grok 5 released by...?
By December 31, 2027 leads by 74 pts · 2 outcomes at 5%+
- By December 31, 2027#1By December 31, 202783%
Before 2027#2Before 20279%▲ 1
Before December#3Before December2%▼ 1
- Resolves
- Jan 14, 2028
- Volume
- $49.9K
- 24h
- $367
- Liquidity
- $5.8K
- Outcomes
- 3
3 venues · 5 marketsWho’s winning
Top 3, each at its busiest venue- By December 31, 202783%
- Before 20279%
- Before December2%
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Signals
1 signal- Before 202724h4¢ apart across venues
Every outcome, every venue
3 venuesYes pays $1 if it’s right. Chance is the venues’ consensus; green marks the cheapest venue after fees, and every price opens that venue’s market.
Where venues disagree
Yes price- Before 20274¢buy
- Polymarket US
- Polymarket (global)
- Kalshi
- Consensus
Same outcome, different price: buy where it’s cheapest.
Smart money
Biggest tradesLoading trades…
In the news
How each venue settles it
Kalshi
If xAI releases Grok 5 before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Full rules on Kalshi ↗Polymarket (global)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qu…
Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify. Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
- Category
- Culture
- Resolves
- Fri, January 14, 2028
Compared across 3 venues