Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Resolves Oct 4, 2027

• Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+: Yes 0¢ (polymarket)
• Flávio Bolsonaro <5%: Yes 4¢ (kalshi)
• Lula da Silva <5%: Yes 29¢ (kalshi)
• Lula da Silva 10-15%: Yes 9¢ (polymarket)
• Lula da Silva 5-10%: Yes 30¢ (polymarket)
• Flávio Bolsonaro within 0% to 5%: Yes 15¢ (kalshi)
• Other: Yes 6¢ (polymarket)
• Renan Santos Victory: Yes 6¢ (polymarket)
• Lula da Silva 15%+: Yes 7¢ (polymarket)
• Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%: Yes 1¢ (polymarket)
• Ratinho Júnior Victory: Yes 0¢ (polymarket)
• Tarcisio de Freitas Victory: Yes 0¢ (polymarket)