Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 31 leads by 5 pts
- December 31#1December 318%
- November 30#2November 303%▼ 1
- Resolves
- Jan 14, 2027
- Volume
- $4.1M
- 24h
- $20.4K
- Liquidity
- $268.7K
- Candidates
- 2
2 venues · 3 marketsWho’s winning
Top 2, each at its busiest venue- December 318%
- November 303%
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Signals
Quiet market: no big moves or venue gaps in the last 24 hours.
Every candidate, every venue
2 venuesYes pays $1 if it’s right. Chance is the venues’ consensus; green marks the cheapest venue after fees, and every price opens that venue’s market.
Where venues disagree
Yes price- December 313¢buy
- Polymarket (global)
- Polymarket US
- Consensus
Same candidate, different price: buy where it’s cheapest.
Smart money
Biggest tradesLoading trades…
In the news
How each venue settles it
Polymarket (global)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to o…
Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗About this market
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730 , including both the chart and downloadable files.
- Category
- Politics
- Resolves
- Thu, January 14, 2027
Compared across 2 venues