Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? — By December 31, 2026

8% chance

Yes8%

Buy Yes11¢fee unknown

No92%

Buy No90¢fee unknown

Resolves: Dec 31, 2026
Volume: $2.2M
24h: $13.6K
Liquidity: $151.2K

Listed on 2 venues

Chance over time

Yes price, by venue

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Signals

Quiet market: no big moves or venue gaps in the last 24 hours.

Every venue’s price

2 venues

Chance

Best

Yes8%—8¢11¢

11¢fee unknown

No93%—93¢90¢

90¢fee unknown

Each share pays $1 if it’s right. Green marks the cheapest venue after fees; every price opens that venue’s market.

Before you trade

Fee Impact at These Prices

Polymarketat 8¢: exit costs ~0¢/contract

Polymarket USat 11¢: Fees unavailable

Full calculator

How each venue settles it

Polymarket (global)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to o…

Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗

Polymarket US

Bab el-Mandeb Strait Effectively Closed?

Full rules on Polymarket US ↗

About this market

Category: Politics
Event: Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
Resolves: Thu, December 31, 2026