Will Election Prediction Markets Be Outlawed?
The House Event Contract Enforcement Act (Moore-Carbajal, March 5, 2026) would ban election, government-activity, and war contracts on CFTC-regulated platforms.
Will Election Prediction Markets Be Outlawed?
The Senate sports ban (Schiff-Curtis) never targeted elections. The new House companion bill does. Here's what both bills mean for your positions — and which market categories are safe.
Key Update: House Bill Goes Further Than Senate Bill
The Event Contract Enforcement Act (Moore-Carbajal, introduced March 5, 2026) would ban election, government-activity, and war/terrorism contracts — categories NOT covered by the Senate Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act. This is a new and distinct risk.
Two Bills — Very Different Scopes
The bills are often conflated in media coverage. They target different market categories.
Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act
Schiff (D-CA) + Curtis (R-UT)
Event Contract Enforcement Act
Moore (R-UT) + Carbajal (D-CA)
Market Category Risk Table
| Market Category | Senate Bill | House Bill |
|---|---|---|
| Sports event contracts | BANNED | BANNED |
| Election outcome contracts | Safe | BANNED |
| Government activity contracts | Safe | BANNED |
| War / terrorism contracts | Safe | BANNED |
| Economic/financial contracts | Safe | Safe |
| Weather contracts | Safe | Safe |
| Science/tech contracts | Safe | Safe |
Based on current legislative text as of March 25, 2026. Bills can be amended before passage.
Why Does the House Bill Go Further?
Platform Exposure
Kalshi
Polymarket
QCX LLC CFTC order amended November 25, 2025. US platform currently sports-only; election and political markets listed as "coming soon" in official app.
Honest Bottom Line
Economic, financial, weather, and science prediction markets appear safe under both current bills. No legislation targets these categories.
Neither bill is law yet. Early-stage committee process. Prediction markets have survived legislative challenges before.
Rep. Blake Moore's co-sponsorship of the House bill is a meaningful signal shift — he was previously considered a CFTC ally. Bipartisan, bicameral momentum is real.
If both bills pass and are reconciled, the overlap (sports) is removed from CFTC jurisdiction. But a conference agreement could expand scope further.
Bias disclosure: PredictionMarkets.US has no financial relationship with Kalshi, Polymarket, or any prediction market platform. We aim to report legislative developments accurately, not editorially favor any outcome.