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    HomeLearnNew Jersey Prediction Markets
    Guide

    New Jersey Prediction Markets

    Kalshi Operational in NJ
    SCOTUS Deadline: Aug 4, 2026

    New Jersey Prediction Markets: Third Circuit Win & What Comes Next

    New Jersey residents can currently access Kalshi and other prediction market platforms. A federal appeals court ruled in Kalshi's favor on April 6, 2026 — but today, August 4, is the deadline for New Jersey to ask the Supreme Court to review that decision.

    Current Access Status — New Jersey

    Kalshi is fully operational in New Jersey. The Third Circuit's April 6, 2026 preliminary injunction bars the state from enforcing its gambling laws against Kalshi's sports-related event contracts on CFTC-licensed exchanges.

    New Jersey's deadline to petition the U.S. Supreme Court for review is August 4, 2026 — today. Filing a cert petition would not immediately change Kalshi's operational status. The preliminary injunction remains in effect unless a court orders otherwise.

    Always confirm current availability at each platform's official site. Legal status can change with new court orders.

    Platform Access for New Jersey Residents

    Kalshi
    Restricted

    Fully operational — Third Circuit preliminary injunction protects access

    Visit official site
    ForecastEx (IBKR)
    Invite-Only

    Available via Interactive Brokers account

    Visit official site
    PredictIt
    Restricted

    Available under CFTC no-action letter

    Visit official site
    Polymarket
    Invite-Only

    US access invite-only; NJ not separately restricted

    Visit official site

    Platform data sourced from official platform sites and court records. Confirm availability before trading.

    The Third Circuit Ruling — What It Said & Why It Matters

    The Core Legal Question

    Do states have authority to ban or regulate prediction market contracts traded on a CFTC-licensed Designated Contract Market (DCM)? New Jersey said yes — its gambling laws and state constitution prohibit what it characterized as unlicensed sports betting. Kalshi said no — the Commodity Exchange Act gives the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction, preempting state gambling enforcement.

    What the Majority Decided (2-1)

    Writing for the majority on April 6, 2026, Judge David J. Porter, Chief Judge Michael A. Chagares held two things:

    1. Sports-related event contracts are "swaps" under the CEA — because outcomes of sporting events are "associated with a potential financial, economic, or commercial consequence" (citing sponsors, advertisers, TV networks, franchises, and communities).
    2. Field preemption and conflict preemption both apply. The CEA grants the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction over swaps traded on DCMs, occupying the regulatory field. Allowing states to ban those contracts would create exactly the "patchwork" of state regulation Congress replaced by creating the CFTC.

    Source: KalshiEX LLC v. Flaherty, No. 25-1922 — Read opinion (ca3.uscourts.gov)

    The Dissent & Its Significance

    Judge Jane R. Roth dissented sharply, calling Kalshi's contracts "virtually indistinguishable from the betting products available on online sportsbooks." She argued the presumption against federal preemption should apply with "special force" in the field of gambling regulation — a traditional state power — and that the CFTC's own Rule 40.11(a)(1) prohibiting "gaming" contracts actually undermined Kalshi's preemption argument. The 2-1 split and significant federalism questions make this ruling a stronger candidate for Supreme Court review than a unanimous decision would be.

    Important Limitation: This Is a Preliminary Injunction

    The Third Circuit ruling affirmed only a preliminary injunction — meaning the court found Kalshi has a reasonable likelihood of success on the merits, not that it has definitively won. The case can return to the district court for a final ruling on the merits. A court at any level could ultimately reach a different conclusion. The preliminary injunction remains protective of users' current access, but the legal battle is not over.

    The SCOTUS Cert Petition — Today's Deadline Explained

    New Jersey's Solicitor General Jeremy M. Feigenbaum filed an application with the Supreme Court on June 26, 2026 — docketed June 30 as Flaherty v. KalshiEX, LLC, SCOTUS Appl. No. 25A1465 — requesting extra time to file a petition for writ of certiorari. This was not the cert petition itself; it was only a request for a deadline extension.

    Justice Alito granted a shorter extension than New Jersey requested, setting the deadline at 2026-08-04 instead of the September 3 date the state sought. New Jersey's filing cited imminent Sixth Circuit rulings (Ohio and Tennessee consolidated appeals, argued July 30) as a reason for the extension — the state wanted to know whether a circuit split existed before deciding how to frame its petition.

    Filing a petition does not mean the Court will take the case. Four of nine justices must agree to grant certiorari. Legal experts widely expect the Court to wait for a cleaner circuit split — possibly from the Ninth or Sixth Circuit — before intervening. But a NJ filing today would place this case on the SCOTUS docket for the first time in prediction markets history.

    Source: supremecourt.gov docket PDF (Appl. No. 25A1465, filed June 26, 2026); CourtListener docket

    Possible Outcomes After Today

    NJ does not file — deadline passes

    The Third Circuit ruling stands. Kalshi remains protected by the preliminary injunction in NJ. The case can still continue at the district level for a final merits ruling.

    NJ files — SCOTUS denies cert

    Third Circuit ruling stands. Kalshi continues operating in NJ. Most legal observers view this as the more likely near-term outcome absent a circuit split.

    NJ files — SCOTUS grants cert

    Historic first: the Supreme Court would take up prediction markets regulation. A ruling either way would set national ground rules for CFTC vs. state authority. The preliminary injunction typically stays in effect pending SCOTUS review. Full briefing and argument would take months.

    New Jersey in the National Legal Picture

    Kalshi Wins

    3rd Circuit (NJ) — 2-1 for Kalshi; field & conflict preemption. First federal appellate ruling for Kalshi.

    D.N.J. (NJ) — Preliminary injunction granted; district court sided with Kalshi.

    M.D. Tenn. (TN) — District court sided with Kalshi on different preemption theory.

    State Wins (Against Kalshi)

    S.D.N.Y. (NY) — Judge Torres ruled CEA does not preempt NY under any preemption theory (Jul 7, 2026). Appeal pending.

    D. Nev. (NV) — Court dissolved prior pro-Kalshi order; TRO blocking Kalshi stands.

    W.D. Wash. (WA) — Preliminary injunction blocking Kalshi; Aug 5 enforcement.

    The conflicting district-court results and the imminent Sixth Circuit ruling (Ohio & Tennessee) are building the circuit split that legal experts say the Supreme Court will need before granting certiorari.

    Key Dates & Events Timeline

    Late 2024Cease-and-Desist

    New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement issues cease-and-desist letter after Kalshi begins offering sports-related event contracts.

    Early 2025Kalshi Sues NJ

    Kalshi files suit in D.N.J. (No. 1:25-cv-02152, Judge Edward S. Kiel) seeking preliminary injunction to block NJ enforcement.

    2025District Court: Injunction Granted

    Judge Kiel grants Kalshi's preliminary injunction, finding CFTC likely has exclusive jurisdiction over sports-related event contracts on DCMs.

    Sep 10, 2025Third Circuit Oral Argument

    Third Circuit hears argument in KalshiEX LLC v. Flaherty, No. 25-1922.

    Apr 6, 2026Third Circuit 2-1 Ruling for Kalshi

    KalshiEX LLC v. Flaherty, No. 25-1922: Majority (Judge David J. Porter, Chief Judge Michael A. Chagares) holds CEA field-preempts and conflict-preempts NJ gambling laws as applied to sports-related event contracts on CFTC-licensed DCMs. Judge Jane R. Roth dissents.

    Jun 26, 2026NJ Files SCOTUS Extension Request

    NJ Solicitor General Jeremy M. Feigenbaum applies to Justice Alito for additional time to petition the Supreme Court (SCOTUS Appl. No. 25A1465), citing imminent Sixth Circuit rulings.

    Jun 30, 2026Justice Alito Grants Shortened Extension

    Justice Alito grants a shorter extension than NJ requested — deadline set to 2026-08-04, not the September 3 date NJ sought.

    Jul 30, 2026Sixth Circuit Oral Argument (Ohio / TN)

    Sixth Circuit hears consolidated Ohio and Tennessee appeals — a ruling against Kalshi would create the circuit split needed to accelerate a SCOTUS petition.

    Aug 4, 2026NJ SCOTUS Cert Petition Deadline

    Today is the deadline for NJ to file a petition for writ of certiorari in Flaherty v. KalshiEX. Whether NJ files — and whether SCOTUS takes the case — remains to be seen.

    Frequently Asked Questions

    Other State & Legal Guides

    Washington State
    Blocked

    King County preliminary injunction; Aug 5 enforcement deadline.

    Michigan
    Restricted

    TRO and ongoing litigation; AG Nessel v. Kalshi.

    Illinois
    Restricted

    TRO in place; federal CFTC suit pending.

    State Regulations Overview

    50-state access map and regulatory status for all platforms.

    CLARITY Act Impact Scenarios

    How federal legislation could override state-by-state litigation.

    CFTC Emergency Denied — NY Case Proceeds
    New

    SDNY Judges Rakoff and Marrero both denied CFTC emergency motions Aug 3.

    Legal disclaimer: This page summarizes publicly available court documents and regulatory filings for informational purposes only. It is not legal advice. Legal status can change rapidly. Always confirm current platform availability at each platform's official site and consult a licensed attorney for advice specific to your situation. Last updated August 4, 2026.