Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next? — Hodge Conjecture

    20% chance

    Yes20%Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USYes22¢23¢ after fees
    No80%Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USNo82¢83¢ after fees
    Resolves
    Dec 31, 2027
    Volume
    $93.7K
    24h
    $994
    Liquidity
    $2.2K
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USListed on 1 venue

    Chance over time

    Polymarket USPolymarket USCFTC-regulated

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    Signals

    Quiet market: no big moves or venue gaps in the last 24 hours.

    Every venue’s price

    1 venue
    ChanceBest
    Yes20%—Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US22¢23¢ after fees
    No80%—Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US82¢83¢ after fees

    Each share pays $1 if it’s right. Green marks the cheapest venue after fees; every price opens that venue’s market.

    Before you trade

    Fee Impact at These Prices

    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarketat 22¢: exit costs ~0.69¢/contract
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    How each venue settles it

    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarket (global)

    This market will resolve according to the first qualifying Millennium Prize Problem for which an eligible AI lab announces a solution by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. If no eligible AI lab announces a solution to a qualifying problem by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No solution by Dec 31, 2027". If solutions to two or more qualifying problems are announced on the same calendar day (E…

    Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗

    About this market

    Category
    Culture
    Resolves
    Fri, December 31, 2027
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USCompared across 1 venue

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