Will Russia invade another country by...?

Will Russia invade another country by...? — December 31, 2026

2% chance

Yes2%

Buy Yes2¢no fee

No98%

Buy No98¢no fee

Resolves: Dec 31, 2026
Volume: $686.5K
24h: $11.2K
Liquidity: $62.8K

Listed on 1 venue

Chance over time

Yes price, by venue

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Signals

Quiet market: no big moves or venue gaps in the last 24 hours.

Every venue’s price

1 venue

Chance

Best

Yes2%—2¢

2¢no fee

No98%—98¢

98¢no fee

Each share pays $1 if it’s right. Green marks the cheapest venue after fees; every price opens that venue’s market.

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Fee Impact at These Prices

Polymarketat 2¢: exit costs ~0¢/contract

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How each venue settles it

Polymarket (global)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that cou…

Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗

About this market

Category: Politics
Event: Will Russia invade another country by...?
Resolves: Thu, December 31, 2026