Will Russia invade another country by...?

Will Russia invade another country by...? — December 31, 2027

18% chance

Yes18%

Buy Yes19¢no fee

No82%

Buy No83¢no fee

Resolves: Dec 31, 2027
Volume: $84.0K
24h: $114
Liquidity: $37.8K

Listed on 1 venue

Chance over time

Yes price, by venue

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Signals

Quiet market: no big moves or venue gaps in the last 24 hours.

Every venue’s price

1 venue

Chance

Best

Yes18%—19¢

19¢no fee

No82%—83¢

83¢no fee

Each share pays $1 if it’s right. Green marks the cheapest venue after fees; every price opens that venue’s market.

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Fee Impact at These Prices

Polymarketat 19¢: exit costs ~0¢/contract

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How each venue settles it

Polymarket (global)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that cou…

Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗

About this market

Category: Politics
Event: Will Russia invade another country by...?
Resolves: Fri, December 31, 2027