Next Prime Minister of Italy? — Roberto Vannacci

5% chance · down 3 pts today

Yes5%▼ 3

Buy Yes11¢12¢ after fees

No95%▲ 3

Buy No99¢100¢ after fees

Resolves: Dec 30, 2028
Volume: $41.6K
24h: $0
Liquidity: $30.3K

Listed on 2 venues

Chance over time

Yes price, by venue

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Signals

2 signals

Yes24h
▼ 3¢ in 24h
Yes24h
8¢ apart across venues

Every venue’s price

2 venues

Chance

Best

Yes5%▼ 311¢3¢

11¢12¢ after fees

No95%▲ 399¢97¢

99¢100¢ after fees

Each share pays $1 if it’s right. Green marks the cheapest venue after fees; every price opens that venue’s market.

Before you trade

Fee Impact at These Prices

Polymarketat 3¢: exit costs ~0.13¢/contract

Kalshiat 11¢: exit costs ~1¢/contract on a 1-contract order, rounded up to 1¢

Full calculator

How each venue settles it

Kalshi

If Roberto Vannacci becomes Prime Minister of Italy as a result of government formation following the next Italian general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Dec 22, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules on Kalshi ↗

Polymarket (global)

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM E…

Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗

About this market

Category: Politics
Event: Next Prime Minister of Italy?
Resolves: Sat, December 30, 2028