International

    Next Prime Minister of Italy?

    Giorgia Meloni leads by 24 pts · 3 candidates at 5%+

    1. Giorgia Meloni#149%
    2. Giuseppe Conte#225%
    3. Elly Schlein#319%
    #4 Roberto Vannacci5%#5 Silvia Salis3%+12 more
    Resolves
    Dec 31, 2028
    Volume
    $121.7K
    24h
    $385
    Liquidity
    $210.9K
    Candidates
    17
    kalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US2 venues · 17 markets

    Who’s winning

    • Giorgia Meloni49%
    • Giuseppe Conte25%
    • Elly Schlein19%
    • Roberto Vannacci5%
    • Silvia Salis3%
    Polymarket USPolymarket USCFTC-regulated

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    Signals

    5 signals
    1. Giorgia Meloni24h
      ▼ 7¢ in 24hPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USkalshi
    2. Elly Schlein24h
      ▼ 5¢ in 24hPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USkalshi
    3. Roberto Vannacci24h
      ▼ 3¢ in 24hPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USkalshi
    4. Roberto Vannacci24h
      8¢ apart across venuesPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USkalshi
    5. Giuseppe Conte24h
      5¢ apart across venueskalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US

    Every candidate, every venue

    2 venues
    ChanceBest
    Giorgia Meloni$17.8K vol49%▼ 7kalshi53¢55¢ after fees
    Giuseppe Conte$9.7K vol · 5¢ apart25%▲ 1kalshi20¢22¢ after fees
    Elly Schlein$9.1K vol19%▼ 5kalshi25¢27¢ after fees
    Roberto Vannacci$41.6K vol · 8¢ apart5%▼ 3kalshi11¢12¢ after fees
    Silvia Salis$12.4K vol3%▼ 3kalshi7¢8¢ after fees
    Gaetano Manfredi$692 vol3%▼ 3kalshi6¢7¢ after fees
    Paolo Gentiloni$698 vol3%▼ 2kalshi5¢6¢ after fees
    Roberto Gualtieri$2.1K vol3%▼ 2kalshi5¢6¢ after fees
    Antonio Decaro$653 vol3%▼ 2kalshi5¢6¢ after fees
    Ernesto Maria Ruffini$691 vol3%▼ 2kalshi5¢6¢ after fees

    Yes pays $1 if it’s right. Chance is the venues’ consensus; green marks the cheapest venue after fees, and every price opens that venue’s market.

    Where venues disagree

    Yes price
    • Roberto Vannacci8¢buy kalshi
    • Giuseppe Conte5¢buy kalshi
    • Elly Schlein3¢buy kalshi
    • Giorgia Meloni2¢buy kalshi
    • Polymarket (global)
    • Kalshi
    • Consensus

    Same candidate, different price: buy where it’s cheapest.

    Smart money

    Biggest trades

    Loading trades…

    In the news

    How each venue settles it

    kalshiKalshi

    If Giorgia Meloni becomes Prime Minister of Italy as a result of government formation following the next Italian general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Dec 22, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Full rules on Kalshi ↗
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarket (global)

    This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM E…

    Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗

    About this market

    This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

    Category
    Politics
    Resolves
    Sun, December 31, 2028
    kalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USCompared across 2 venues

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