CA-04 House Election Winner (by individual)

CA-04 House Election Winner (by individual) — Mike Thompson (D)

1% chance · down 5 pts today

Yes1%▼ 5

Buy Yes1¢2¢ after fees

No99%▲ 5—

Resolves: Nov 4, 2026
Volume: $158.4K
24h: $9.1K
Liquidity: $14.6K

Listed on 3 venues

Chance over time

Yes price, by venue

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Signals

1 signal

Yes24h
▼ 5¢ in 24h

Every venue’s price

3 venues

Chance

Best

Yes1%▼ 51¢2¢9¢

1¢2¢ after fees

No100%▲ 5–––—

Each share pays $1 if it’s right. Green marks the cheapest venue after fees; every price opens that venue’s market.

Before you trade

Fee Impact at These Prices

Polymarketat 2¢: exit costs ~0.07¢/contract

Full calculator

How each venue settles it

Kalshi

If Mike Thompson wins the 2026 CA-04 House election, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Polymarket (global)

This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official res…

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Polymarket US

CA-04 House Election Winner

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About this market

Category: Politics
Event: CA-04 House Election Winner (by individual)
Resolves: Wed, November 4, 2026