Beta
    LIVE

    Donald Trump

    Volume

    $4.1M

    $9.5K 24h

    Platforms

    2

    Cross-platform pricing

    Resolution

    Resolves Oct 10, 2026

    ~130 days left

    Category

    Politics

    8¢CHANCE OF YES8%92%
    Yes-2¢
    8¢
    Kalshi
    No+2¢
    92¢
    Polymarket

    Opens on best-price platform

    Compare & Trade

    2 platforms
    PPolymarket
    Best No
    Yes
    9¢
    No
    92¢
    Vol
    $3.5M
    $9.2K 24h
    Trade on Polymarket
    KKalshi
    Best Yes
    Yes
    8¢
    No
    93¢
    Vol
    $529.3K
    $329 24h
    Trade on Kalshi

    Price History

    May 27 11:00May 28 15:00May 29 20:00May 31 00:00Jun 1 03:00Jun 2 08:273¢6¢9¢12¢15¢

    About This Market

    If Donald Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

    How This Resolves

    KKalshi

    Source: Official government sources (AP, official canvass)

    Rule: Resolves based on AP race call or official certified result, whichever comes first.

    View rule How to verify
    PPolymarket

    Source: AP or official government declaration

    Rule: Resolves based on AP call or official declaration. Admin review committee handles edge cases.

    View rule How to verify

    Different resolution sources can explain price gaps between platforms. Check both rules before interpreting a spread as an opportunity.

    Market Quality

    Kalshi:Broad consensus
    Poly:Concentrated
    Vol: $2.1M / $8.4M · Largest pos: <4% / ~18%

    Fee Impact at These Prices

    KKalshiat 8¢: exit costs ~0.52¢/contract
    PPolymarketat 9¢: exit costs ~0¢/contract
    Full calculator

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    Market Details

    ResolutionResolves Oct 10, 2026
    Time Left130 days
    Status● Active
    CategoryPolitics

    Related reading

    External
    Politics

    Trump Likely Among 287 Nominated For 2026 Nobel Peace Prize

    1 minUnknown
    Politics

    Trump likely among 287 candidates for Nobel Peace Prize - World - DAWN.COM

    1 minReuters
    Politics

    Trump promised nomination as some 287 on Nobel Peace Prize list for 2026 | The Independent

    1 minUnknown
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    2025 Nobel Peace Prize

    1 minUnknown
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    Trump to get Nobel Peace Prize FINALLY? Committee says 287 nominated: 'I am new to the job...'

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    Machado presents Trump with her Nobel award at White House meeting

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    Nobel Foundation Speaks Out After Machado Gifts Trump Peace Prize - Newsweek

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