Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by November 30?

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by November 30? — 40+

5% chance

Yes5%

Buy Yes6¢no fee

No95%

Buy No97¢no fee

Resolves: Nov 30, 2026
Volume: $2.5K
24h: $263
Liquidity: $3.4K

Listed on 1 venue

Chance over time

Yes price, by venue

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Quiet market: no big moves or venue gaps in the last 24 hours.

Every venue’s price

1 venue

Chance

Best

Yes5%—6¢

6¢no fee

No95%—97¢

97¢no fee

Each share pays $1 if it’s right. Green marks the cheapest venue after fees; every price opens that venue’s market.

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Polymarket (global)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and November 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Po…

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About this market

Category: Politics
Event: Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by November 30?
Resolves: Mon, November 30, 2026