Will Pete Hegseth be impeached in 2026? — Before Apr 1, 2027

60% chance · down 7 pts today

Yes60%▼ 7

Buy Yes66¢68¢ after fees

No40%▲ 7

Buy No37¢39¢ after fees

Resolves: Mar 31, 2027
Volume: $106.7K
24h: $25.0K
Liquidity: $33.6K

Listed on 2 venues

Chance over time

Yes price, by venue

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Signals

2 signals

Yes24h
▼ 7¢ in 24h
Yes24h
9¢ apart across venues

Every venue’s price

2 venues

Chance

Best

Yes60%▼ 766¢57¢

66¢68¢ after fees

No40%▲ 737¢44¢

37¢39¢ after fees

Each share pays $1 if it’s right. Green marks the cheapest venue after fees; every price opens that venue’s market.

Before you trade

Fee Impact at These Prices

Polymarketat 57¢: exit costs ~0.98¢/contract

Kalshiat 66¢: exit costs ~2¢/contract on a 1-contract order, rounded up to 1¢

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How each venue settles it

Kalshi

If Pete Hegseth is formally impeached before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Polymarket (global)

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of United States Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, between market creation and March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.…

Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗

About this market

Category: Politics
Event: Will Pete Hegseth be impeached in 2026?
Resolves: Wed, March 31, 2027