Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? — Dan Driscoll

12% chance

Yes12%

Buy Yes14¢15¢ after fees

No88%

Buy No91¢92¢ after fees

Listed on 1 venue

Chance over time

Yes price, by venue

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Quiet market: no big moves or venue gaps in the last 24 hours.

1 venue

Chance

Best

Yes12%—14¢

14¢15¢ after fees

No89%—91¢

91¢92¢ after fees

Each share pays $1 if it’s right. Green marks the cheapest venue after fees; every price opens that venue’s market.

Kalshiat 14¢: exit costs ~1¢/contract on a 1-contract order, rounded up to 1¢

Kalshi

If the next new Secretary of Defense before Jan 20, 2029 is Dan Driscoll, then the market resolves to Yes.