Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense? — Before Jul 1, 2028

84% chance

Yes84%

Buy Yes85¢86¢ after fees

No16%

Buy No17¢18¢ after fees

Listed on 1 venue

Chance over time

Yes price, by venue

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Quiet market: no big moves or venue gaps in the last 24 hours.

1 venue

Chance

Best

Yes84%—85¢

85¢86¢ after fees

No16%—17¢

17¢18¢ after fees

Each share pays $1 if it’s right. Green marks the cheapest venue after fees; every price opens that venue’s market.

Kalshiat 85¢: exit costs ~1¢/contract on a 1-contract order, rounded up to 1¢

Kalshi

If Pete Hegseth leaves as Secretary of Defense before Jul 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.