When will the US add a 51st state? — Before Jan 1, 2034

25% chance

Yes25%

Buy Yes29¢31¢ after fees

No75%

Buy No79¢81¢ after fees

Listed on 1 venue

Chance over time

Yes price, by venue

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Quiet market: no big moves or venue gaps in the last 24 hours.

1 venue

Chance

Best

Yes25%—29¢

29¢31¢ after fees

No75%—79¢

79¢81¢ after fees

Each share pays $1 if it’s right. Green marks the cheapest venue after fees; every price opens that venue’s market.

Kalshiat 29¢: exit costs ~2¢/contract on a 1-contract order, rounded up to 1¢

Kalshi

If the United States adds another state before Jan 1, 2034, then the market resolves to Yes.