When will any company achieve AGI? — Before Jan 1, 2029

76% chance

Yes76%

Buy Yes77¢79¢ after fees

No24%

Buy No25¢27¢ after fees

Resolves: Dec 31, 2028
Volume: $4.2K
24h: $0

Listed on 1 venue

Chance over time

Yes price, by venue

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Signals

Quiet market: no big moves or venue gaps in the last 24 hours.

Every venue’s price

1 venue

Chance

Best

Yes76%—77¢

77¢79¢ after fees

No24%—25¢

25¢27¢ after fees

Each share pays $1 if it’s right. Green marks the cheapest venue after fees; every price opens that venue’s market.

Before you trade

Fee Impact at These Prices

Kalshiat 77¢: exit costs ~2¢/contract on a 1-contract order, rounded up to 1¢

Full calculator

How each venue settles it

Kalshi

If any company (public or private) officially announces that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) after market issuance and before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules on Kalshi ↗

About this market

Category: Culture
Event: When will any company achieve AGI?
Resolves: Sun, December 31, 2028