Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville independence? — Before Jan 1, 2027

15% chance

Yes15%

Buy Yes17¢18¢ after fees

No85%

Buy No87¢88¢ after fees

Listed on 1 venue

Chance over time

Yes price, by venue

Polymarket USCFTC-regulated

Deposit $10, get $25

Trading bonus for new sign-ups.

Sponsored · We may earn a commission · 18+ · Trade responsibly · 1-800-GAMBLER

Quiet market: no big moves or venue gaps in the last 24 hours.

1 venue

Chance

Best

Yes15%—17¢

17¢18¢ after fees

No85%—87¢

87¢88¢ after fees

Each share pays $1 if it’s right. Green marks the cheapest venue after fees; every price opens that venue’s market.

Kalshiat 17¢: exit costs ~1¢/contract on a 1-contract order, rounded up to 1¢

Kalshi

If Papua New Guinea has agreed to or announced the ratification of Bougainville's independence before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.