When will P vs NP be resolved? — Before 2030

20% chance

Yes20%

Buy Yes22¢24¢ after fees

No80%

Buy No83¢84¢ after fees

Resolves: Jan 1, 2030
Volume: $5.8K
24h: $0

Listed on 1 venue

Chance over time

Yes price, by venue

Polymarket USCFTC-regulated

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Signals

Quiet market: no big moves or venue gaps in the last 24 hours.

Every venue’s price

1 venue

Chance

Best

Yes20%—22¢

22¢24¢ after fees

No81%—83¢

83¢84¢ after fees

Each share pays $1 if it’s right. Green marks the cheapest venue after fees; every price opens that venue’s market.

Before you trade

Fee Impact at These Prices

Kalshiat 22¢: exit costs ~2¢/contract on a 1-contract order, rounded up to 1¢

Full calculator

How each venue settles it

Kalshi

If P versus NP Problem in its official Clay Mathematics Institute formulation is resolved before Jan 1, 2030 under the Payout Criterion and that resolution has not been retracted, withdrawn, repudiated, or rescinded prior to the Expiration time, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules on Kalshi ↗

About this market

Category: Culture
Event: When will P vs NP be resolved?
Resolves: Tue, January 1, 2030