Will an LLM beat a grandmaster in chess? — Before 2029

67% chance

Yes67%

Buy Yes71¢73¢ after fees

No33%

Buy No37¢39¢ after fees

Listed on 1 venue

Chance over time

Yes price, by venue

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Quiet market: no big moves or venue gaps in the last 24 hours.

1 venue

Chance

Best

Yes67%—71¢

71¢73¢ after fees

No33%—37¢

37¢39¢ after fees

Each share pays $1 if it’s right. Green marks the cheapest venue after fees; every price opens that venue’s market.

Kalshiat 71¢: exit costs ~2¢/contract on a 1-contract order, rounded up to 1¢

Kalshi

If any of the Source Agencies report that an LLM has beaten a chess grandmaster in chess before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.