What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term? — At least 3500

88% chance

Yes88%

Buy Yes95¢96¢ after fees

No12%

Buy No19¢21¢ after fees

Listed on 1 venue

Chance over time

Yes price, by venue

Polymarket USCFTC-regulated

Deposit $10, get $25

Trading bonus for new sign-ups.

Sponsored · We may earn a commission · 18+ · Trade responsibly · 1-800-GAMBLER

Quiet market: no big moves or venue gaps in the last 24 hours.

1 venue

Chance

Best

Yes88%—95¢

95¢96¢ after fees

No12%—19¢

19¢21¢ after fees

Each share pays $1 if it’s right. Green marks the cheapest venue after fees; every price opens that venue’s market.

Kalshiat 95¢: exit costs ~1¢/contract on a 1-contract order, rounded up to 1¢

Kalshi

If the average number of measles cases annually from 2025 to 2028 is at least 3500, then the market resolves to Yes.

Category: Culture
Event: What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
Resolves: Mon, January 1, 2029