AI capability growth this year? — At least 1550 score

60% chance

Yes60%

Buy Yes64¢66¢ after fees

No40%

Buy No44¢46¢ after fees

Listed on 1 venue

Chance over time

Yes price, by venue

Polymarket USCFTC-regulated

Deposit $10, get $25

Trading bonus for new sign-ups.

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Quiet market: no big moves or venue gaps in the last 24 hours.

1 venue

Chance

Best

Yes60%—64¢

64¢66¢ after fees

No40%—44¢

44¢46¢ after fees

Each share pays $1 if it’s right. Green marks the cheapest venue after fees; every price opens that venue’s market.

Kalshiat 64¢: exit costs ~2¢/contract on a 1-contract order, rounded up to 1¢

Kalshi

If an AI model has a score of at least 1550 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.