Chance over time

Yes price, by venue

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Signals

1 signal

Yes24h
4¢ apart across venues

Every venue’s price

2 venues

Chance

Best

Yes7%▲ 111¢7¢

11¢12¢ after fees

No93%▼ 192¢94¢

92¢93¢ after fees

Each share pays $1 if it’s right. Green marks the cheapest venue after fees; every price opens that venue’s market.

Before you trade

Fee Impact at These Prices

Polymarketat 7¢: exit costs ~0.25¢/contract

Kalshiat 11¢: exit costs ~1¢/contract on a 1-contract order, rounded up to 1¢

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How each venue settles it

Kalshi

If Alexandre de Moraes leaves as Justice of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Polymarket (global)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Alexandre de Moraes ceases to be a Justice of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resign…

Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗

About this market

Category: Politics
Event: Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?
Resolves: Thu, December 31, 2026

Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?