How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? — Above 145

7% chance

Yes7%

Buy Yes8¢9¢ after fees

No93%

Buy No94¢95¢ after fees

Listed on 1 venue

Chance over time

Yes price, by venue

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Quiet market: no big moves or venue gaps in the last 24 hours.

1 venue

Chance

Best

Yes7%—8¢

8¢9¢ after fees

No93%—94¢

94¢95¢ after fees

Each share pays $1 if it’s right. Green marks the cheapest venue after fees; every price opens that venue’s market.

Kalshiat 8¢: exit costs ~1¢/contract on a 1-contract order, rounded up to 1¢

Kalshi

If SpaceX has more than 145 launches in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.