How much will be spent on political ads in the 2026 cycle?

How much will be spent on political ads in the 2026 cycle? — Above 11.75 billion dollars

88% chance

Yes88%

Buy Yes92¢93¢ after fees

No12%

Buy No16¢17¢ after fees

Resolves: Jan 31, 2027
Volume: $2.8K
24h: $0

Listed on 1 venue

Chance over time

Yes price, by venue

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Deposit $10, get $25

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Signals

Quiet market: no big moves or venue gaps in the last 24 hours.

Every venue’s price

1 venue

Chance

Best

Yes88%—92¢

92¢93¢ after fees

No12%—16¢

16¢17¢ after fees

Each share pays $1 if it’s right. Green marks the cheapest venue after fees; every price opens that venue’s market.

Before you trade

Fee Impact at These Prices

Kalshiat 92¢: exit costs ~1¢/contract on a 1-contract order, rounded up to 1¢

Full calculator

How each venue settles it

Kalshi

If total political ad spending for the 2025-2026 election cycle is above 11.75 billion dollars in AdImpact's 2025-2026 Cycle in Review, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules on Kalshi ↗

About this market

Category: Politics
Event: How much will be spent on political ads in the 2026 cycle?
Resolves: Sun, January 31, 2027