Is This Real Prediction Market Arbitrage, or Just a Contract Mismatch?
Most prediction market arbitrage screenshots are contract mismatches, not free money. Use this checklist to compare wording, deadlines, settlement equivalence,
Is This Real Prediction Market Arbitrage, or Just a Contract Mismatch?
Most viral arbitrage screenshots are really contract mismatch screenshots. Before you trade, compare contract wording, deadline, settlement equivalence, fees, execution depth, and capital lockup.
Quick answer
If the wording, deadline, or settlement source differs, you are not looking at true arbitrage. Same headline does not mean same contract.
Real arb vs fake arb
The decision is not whether the screenshot looks exciting. The decision is whether both sides are actually the same bet.
Closer to real arbitrage
- Same event wording across both markets
- Same settlement source or authority
- Same deadline and timezone cutoff
- Spread still survives fees and transfer friction
Fake arbitrage / contract mismatch
- One contract says by June 30 while another says in June
- One platform resolves on AP and another waits for certification
- The spread disappears after fees, slippage, or moving capital
- You cannot fill both sides before one market reprices
Example: the screenshot looks clean, the contracts are not
Imagine a Kalshi vs Polymarket screenshot where both headlines appear to ask the same question and the price gap looks huge. The trap is that the headline is only the teaser.
Under the hood, one market might ask whether something happens by June 30, while the other asks whether it happens during June. Or one may resolve from an AP call while the other waits for certification. That is not free money. That is a fake spread created by different contracts hiding under similar labels.
If you do not inspect the contract language first, you can think you built a hedge when you actually opened two different directional bets.
What the page is trying to stop
Calling every cross-platform spread arbitrage.
Trusting the headline instead of the resolution language.
Ignoring deadline mismatch, settlement-source mismatch, or execution friction.
Confusing a screenshot with a guaranteed edge.
Why retail arbitrage breaks
Even when a spread looks promising, retail execution usually fails in the ugly places that the screenshot hides.
The market moves first
Fees and spread matter
Capital gets trapped
Resolution mismatch is lethal
Related tools and explainers
Use these when you need the deeper why behind the mismatch you just found.
FAQ
The short version: evaluate the contract before you evaluate the screenshot.
Keep these two disclaimers in your head
- Visible price gaps do not guarantee risk-free arbitrage.
- This page is an evaluation framework, not trading advice.