Can a prediction market platform change resolution rules mid-market?

Yes. Under CFTC DCM rules, Designated Contract Markets can invoke existing contract terms that traders may not have noticed — and can also amend rules after the fact. This happened — Kalshi invoked a 'death carveout' clause on the $54M+ Ali Khamenei market (Feb 28, 2026), resolving it at last-traded-price instead of YES despite Khamenei's confirmed death. Kalshi later codified a new death-settlement rule effective March 17, 2026. Always read the full contract rules before entering a position, not just the market title.

What happens if the oracle data source goes offline at resolution time?

This depends on the platform. Kalshi's operations team would make a judgment call, which introduces human discretion. Polymarket would pause the UMA oracle dispute window. The risk is highest in single-source markets (weather, some crypto) where there's no named fallback. Check the contract's Resolution Source field for fallback instructions.

Are pre-taped show markets different from live-event markets?

Yes, structurally. For live events (elections, sports), information emerges publicly in real time. For pre-taped shows (Survivor, The Bachelor, award shows), the outcome is fixed before the market closes — only cast, crew, and their contacts know the result. This creates an inherent structural advantage for insiders. The market doesn't resolve faster with insider knowledge; it prices incorrectly from the moment trading opens.

How are mention markets resolved?

Mention markets (e.g., 'Will [person] be mentioned in [publication] by [date]?') rely on Kalshi Operations staff manually reviewing the named source. One human makes the call. This is the highest-risk oracle structure: no fallback, no multi-source check, no automated verification. If the wording is ambiguous, the operations team has full discretion. Read the exact contract wording on mention markets very carefully.

What is the dispute window on each platform?

Polymarket's UMA oracle gives anyone a 2-hour challenge window after a resolution is proposed; disputing usually requires a $750 USDC bond. Kalshi's rulebook includes an internal market outcome review process, but the platform does not publish a simple trader-facing dispute window in the way Polymarket does. ForecastEx publishes product and regulatory materials; traders should check the specific contract terms and member documentation for any dispute or correction process before trading.

Has a prediction market platform ever reversed a resolution?

Yes. Kalshi invoked its 'death carveout' clause on the Ali Khamenei market (Feb 28, 2026) — $54M+ in contracts resolved at last-traded-price rather than YES after Khamenei was killed in US-Israeli strikes. Kalshi paid ~$2.2M in refunds and later codified a new death-settlement rule. Polymarket has had UMA oracle disputes result in outcome challenges on geopolitical markets. Neither platform publicly tracks resolution controversy history in one place — this is a known transparency gap in the industry.

Why do display charts not match settlement sources?

Display charts are aggregated real-time feeds (TradingView, CoinGecko, platform UI). Settlement sources are contractually defined specific sources (NOAA station KPHL, Binance 1-minute candle, AP race call, BLS.gov release). They usually match. When they don't — in edge cases like exchange outages, timezone differences, or different measurement methodologies — you get a payout surprise. Being surprised by the settlement source is not grounds for reversal; the source was in the contract.

Can I dispute a prediction market resolution I disagree with?

On Polymarket (global markets), yes — you can dispute by posting $750 USDC within the 2-hour window. If successful, you get the bond back plus a portion of the losing side's bond. On Kalshi, there is no formal trader dispute process. You can contact support or post in Discord, but Kalshi's internal team makes all final decisions. For amounts that matter, you can file a CFTC complaint at cftc.gov/complaint.

Can I sue a prediction market platform if they resolve wrong?

For CFTC-regulated platforms like Kalshi, yes — you have legal recourse through CFTC dispute mechanisms. For unregulated platforms, it depends on your jurisdiction and whether you agreed to binding arbitration in their terms of service. For amounts under $5,000, legal action typically costs more than the dispute.

What if the platform is offline or goes bankrupt?

Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) is required to maintain segregated customer funds. Polymarket positions are on-chain USDC — the platform going offline doesn't affect your on-chain balance. Unregulated platforms have no such protections. This is a real risk for smaller platforms.