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    Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

    Resolves Dec 31, 2026
    Total Volume

    $29.4M

    +$358.7K (24h)

    Active Markets

    1

    Across 1 platforms

    Frontrunner

    28¢

    Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

    Biggest Mover 24h

    —

    No movement

    Arb Opportunities

    0

    None detected

    All Markets

    1 markets · Showing 1
    #24H
    1
    Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
    		28¢29¢
    $29.4M+$358.7K 24h
    		——

    Implied Probability

    Consensus across platforms
    1Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
    28%
    28¢—

    Price History

    Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
    May 13 10:00May 14 13:00May 15 17:00May 16 20:00May 17 23:00May 19 08:2620.5%25.5%30.5%37.5%

    Related reading

    External
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    Is the US ready to invade Iran? What Trump’s moves tell us so far | US-Israel war on Iran News | Al Jazeera

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    Five Scenarios for a U.S. Ground War on Iran

    1 minArash Reisinezhad
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    Scenarios and risks: Will the US invade Iran?

    1 minUnknown
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    Deployment of Marines to Middle East raises specter of ground troops in Iran - ABC News

    1 minABC News
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    Iran's inflection point is weeks, not months away, says Lindsey Graham | The National

    1 minHadley Gamble
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    Polymarket odds of US invading Iran this year reach 63% after ...

    1 minUnknown
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    US weighs military reinforcements as Iran war enters possible new phase

    1 minPhil Stewart, Idrees Ali, Erin Banco and Gram Slattery, Reuters

    Event Info

    Resolution Date

    ~Dec 31, 2026

    ~226 days remaining
    Category
    Politics
    Markets
    1
    Platforms
    1
    Total Volume
    $29.4M

    Whale Activity

    Mega

    sold $160K No on Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

    polymarket · 12 days ago

    Mega

    sold $85K No on Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

    polymarket · 3 days ago

    Mega

    sold $85K No on Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

    polymarket · 9 days ago

    Mega

    sold $55K No on Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

    polymarket · 12 days ago

    View all whale activity →

    Timeline

    • Price MoveMay 18, 11:00 PM

      Price move: Yes price moved down by 6.5% in 24h

      Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Polymarket

    • Price MoveMay 18, 9:00 PM

      Price move: Yes price moved down by 6.5% in 24h

      Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Polymarket

    • Price MoveMay 18, 8:00 PM

      Price move: Yes price moved down by 9.7% in 24h

      Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Polymarket

    • Price MoveMay 17, 5:00 PM

      Price move: Yes price moved down by 9.4% in 24h

      Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Polymarket

    • Price MoveMay 17, 4:00 PM

      Price move: Yes price moved down by 6.3% in 24h

      Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Polymarket