Geopolitics

    Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?

    6% chance · down 1 pts today

    Yes6%▼ 1kalshiYes8¢9¢ after fees
    No94%▲ 1kalshiNo94¢95¢ after fees
    Resolves
    Jan 1, 2027
    Volume
    $242.7K
    24h
    $0
    Liquidity
    $21.2K
    kalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US2 venues · 1 market

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    Quiet market: no big moves or venue gaps in the last 24 hours.

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    2 venues
    ChanceBest
    Yes6%▼ 1kalshi8¢9¢ after fees
    No94%▲ 1kalshi94¢95¢ after fees

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    In the news

    How each venue settles it

    kalshiKalshi

    If any member state of OPEC announces they are leaving the organization before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Full rules on Kalshi ↗
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarket (global)

    On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/. This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise,…

    Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗

    About this market

    On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/. This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify. This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

    Category
    Politics
    Resolves
    Fri, January 1, 2027
    kalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USCompared across 2 venues

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