Who will enter Iran by June 30?

    If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

    Resolves Jun 30, 2026
    Total Volume

    $891.0K

    +$14.1K (24h)

    Active Markets

    9

    Across 2 platforms

    Frontrunner

    Any U.S. House member

    Biggest Mover 24h

    -1¢

    Any U.S. Senator

    Arb Opportunities

    0

    None detected

    All Markets

    9 markets · Showing 8
    #24H
    1
    $156.7K+$354 24h
    2
    $68.9K+$656 24h
    3
    $58.0K+$3.2K 24h
    -1¢
    4
    $157.4K+$5.3K 24h
    5
    $130.1K+$957 24h
    6
    Pete Hegseth📈 Trending
    $147.7K+$1.6K 24h
    7
    $44.1K+$542 24h
    -1¢
    8
    $58.5K+$610 24h

    Implied Probability

    Consensus across platforms
    1Any U.S. House member
    2Marco Rubio
    3Any U.S. Senator
    -1¢
    4JD Vance
    5Pete Hegseth
    6Jared Kushner
    -1¢
    7Benjamin Netanyahu

    Event Info

    Resolution Date

    ~Jun 30, 2026

    ~42 days remaining
    Category
    Politics
    Markets
    9
    Platforms
    2
    Total Volume
    $891.0K

    Whale Activity

    No whale trades detected yet

    Timeline

    • Price MoveMay 19, 8:00 AM

      Price move: Yes price moved up by 36.0% in 24h

      Pete Hegseth · Kalshi

    • Price MoveMay 19, 8:00 AM

      Price move: Yes price moved up by 35.7% in 24h

      Benjamin Netanyahu · Kalshi

    • DivergenceMay 19, 8:00 AM

      Pricing disconnect: platforms disagree by 36¢ on outcome probability

      Benjamin Netanyahu · Kalshi, Polymarket

    • DivergenceMay 19, 8:00 AM

      Pricing disconnect: platforms disagree by 36¢ on outcome probability

      Pete Hegseth · Polymarket, Kalshi

    • Price MoveMay 19, 7:00 AM

      Price move: Yes price moved up by 36.0% in 24h

      Pete Hegseth · Kalshi