Global Elections

    Which G7 leader will leave office next?

    Emmanuel Macron leads by 55 pts · 4 candidates at 5%+

    1. Emmanuel Macron#169%
    2. Giorgia Meloni#214%
    3. Friedrich Merz#311%
    #4 Donald Trump6%#5 Andy Burnham3%+2 more
    Resolves
    Jan 1, 2045
    Volume
    $31.6K
    24h
    $25
    Candidates
    7
    kalshi1 venue · 7 markets

    Who’s winning

    • Emmanuel Macron69%
    • Giorgia Meloni14%
    • Friedrich Merz11%
    • Donald Trump6%
    • Andy Burnham3%
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    Signals

    Quiet market: no big moves or venue gaps in the last 24 hours.

    Every candidate, every venue

    1 venue
    ChanceBest
    Emmanuel Macron$3.7K vol69%▼ 1kalshi71¢73¢ after fees
    Giorgia Meloni$2.7K vol14%▼ 2kalshi17¢18¢ after fees
    Friedrich Merz$11.0K vol11%▼ 2kalshi14¢15¢ after fees
    Donald Trump$9.3K vol6%▼ 2kalshi9¢10¢ after fees
    Andy Burnham$2.0K vol3%▼ 2kalshi5¢6¢ after fees
    Mark Carney$1.4K vol2%▼ 1kalshi3¢4¢ after fees
    Sanae Takaichi$1.5K vol2%▼ 1kalshi3¢4¢ after fees

    Yes pays $1 if it’s right. Chance is the venues’ consensus; green marks the cheapest venue after fees, and every price opens that venue’s market.

    Smart money

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    In the news

    How each venue settles it

    kalshiKalshi

    If the individual holding the title of President of France at the time of Issuance is the first within G7 leaders to leave their position, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Full rules on Kalshi ↗

    About this market

    In 2026

    Category
    Politics
    Resolves
    Sun, January 1, 2045
    kalshiCompared across 1 venue

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