Geopolitics

    Venezuela presidential election scheduled by...?

    June 30, 2027 leads by 19 pts · 5 candidates at 5%+

    1. June 30, 2027#149%
    2. Before Apr 1, 2027#230%
    3. Before Feb 1, 2027#314%
    #4 Before Jan 1, 20279%#5 December 31, 20268%+1 more
    Resolves
    Dec 31, 2027
    Volume
    $200.9K
    24h
    $3
    Liquidity
    $54.1K
    Candidates
    6
    kalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US2 venues · 6 markets

    Who’s winning

    • June 30, 202749%
    • Before Apr 1, 202730%
    • Before Feb 1, 202714%
    • Before Jan 1, 20279%
    • December 31, 20268%
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    Signals

    3 signals
    1. Before Apr 1, 202724h
      ▼ 3¢ in 24hPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USkalshi
    2. Before Feb 1, 202724h
      ▼ 3¢ in 24hkalshi
    3. Before Apr 1, 202724h
      6¢ apart across venuesPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USkalshi

    Every candidate, every venue

    2 venues
    ChanceBest
    June 30, 2027$0 vol49%—Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US53¢54¢ after fees
    Before Apr 1, 2027$10.8K vol · 6¢ apart30%▼ 3kalshi37¢39¢ after fees
    Before Feb 1, 2027$11 vol14%▼ 3kalshi17¢18¢ after fees
    Before Jan 1, 2027$8.8K vol9%▼ 2kalshi11¢12¢ after fees
    December 31, 2026$171.1K vol8%—Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US8¢8¢ after fees
    Before Dec 1, 2026$10.2K vol2%▼ 1kalshi4¢5¢ after fees

    Yes pays $1 if it’s right. Chance is the venues’ consensus; green marks the cheapest venue after fees, and every price opens that venue’s market.

    Where venues disagree

    Yes price
    • Before Apr 1, 20276¢buy kalshi
    • Polymarket (global)
    • Kalshi
    • Consensus

    Same candidate, different price: buy where it’s cheapest.

    Smart money

    Biggest trades

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    In the news

    How each venue settles it

    kalshiKalshi

    If Venezuela agrees to or announces a formal decision by the National Electoral Council calling the election for President of Venezuela before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Full rules on Kalshi ↗
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarket (global)

    This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Venezuelan presidential election is scheduled by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To qualify, the election must be scheduled to be held before 2030. This market is about whether a date for the next Venezuelan presidential election is announced within this market's timeframe. Whether the election is supposed to take place with…

    Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗

    About this market

    This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Venezuelan presidential election is scheduled by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To qualify, the election must be scheduled to be held before 2030. This market is about whether a date for the next Venezuelan presidential election is announced within this market's timeframe. Whether the election is supposed to take place within this market's timeframe or later will have no effect on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Venezuela; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

    Category
    Politics
    Resolves
    Fri, December 31, 2027
    kalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USCompared across 2 venues

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