Beta
    LIVE
    8s

    US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

    Resolves Dec 31, 2026
    Total Volume

    $43.1M

    +$4.8M (24h)

    Active Markets

    7

    Across 1 platforms

    Frontrunner

    74¢

    December 31

    Biggest Mover 24h

    +7¢

    October 31

    Arb Opportunities

    0

    None detected

    All Markets

    7 markets · Showing 7
    #
    1
    December 31
    		74¢74¢
    $6.6M+$275.8K 24h
    		+2¢—
    2
    October 31
    		67¢67¢
    $15.3K+$15.3K 24h
    		+7¢—
    3
    August 31
    		52¢52¢
    $16.1K+$16.1K 24h
    		+3¢—
    4
    July 31
    		39¢39¢
    $4.1M+$462.8K 24h
    		——
    5
    June 30
    		27¢27¢
    $17.3M+$599.4K 24h
    		-2¢—
    6
    June 15📈 Trending
    		16¢16¢
    $6.3M+$1.1M 24h
    		-1¢—
    7
    June 7📈 Trending
    		6¢6¢
    $8.8M+$2.4M 24h
    		-1¢—

    Implied Probability

    Consensus across platforms
    1December 31
    74%
    74¢+2¢
    2October 31
    67%
    67¢+7¢
    3August 31
    52%
    52¢+3¢
    4July 31
    39%
    39¢—
    5June 30
    27%
    27¢-2¢
    6June 15
    16%
    16¢-1¢
    7June 7
    6¢-1¢

    Price History

    December 31October 31August 31July 31
    May 26 12:00May 27 15:00May 28 18:00May 29 22:00May 31 01:00Jun 1 03:00Jun 2 08:290.0%25.0%50.0%89.2%

    Related reading

    External
    Politics

    Here's what the draft memo for a proposed deal with Iran includes - CBS News

    1 minUnknown
    Politics

    U.S.-Iran Distrust Holds Up an Agreement - The Soufan Center

    1 minGaby Tejeda
    Politics

    US-Iran 60-day proposal: What we know | US-Israel war on Iran News | Al Jazeera

    1 minSarah Shamim
    Politics

    U.S. and Iranian negotiators reach tentative deal to extend ceasefire and start new nuclear talks | PBS News

    1 minUnknown
    Politics

    Al Arabiya obtains final draft of preliminary US-Iran memorandum of understanding

    1 minUnknown
    Politics

    Islamabad stays in frame for US-Iran deal signing - Pakistan - DAWN.COM

    1 minAnwar Iqbal
    Politics

    US-Iran peace deal could be near: What to know

    1 minUnknown

    Event Info

    Resolution Date

    ~Dec 31, 2026

    ~212 days remaining
    Category
    Politics
    Markets
    7
    Platforms
    1
    Total Volume
    $43.1M

    Whale Activity

    Mega

    sold $398K No on May 31

    polymarket · about 22 hours ago

    Mega

    sold $178K No on May 31

    polymarket · about 23 hours ago

    Whale

    bought $50K No on June 7

    polymarket · about 17 hours ago

    Whale

    bought $48K Yes on July 31

    polymarket · about 15 hours ago

    View all whale activity →

    Timeline

    • Price MoveJun 2, 8:00 AM

      Price move: Yes price moved up by 13.3% in 24h

      October 31 · Polymarket

    • Price MoveJun 2, 8:00 AM

      Price move: Yes price moved up by 6.1% in 24h

      August 31 · Polymarket

    • Price MoveJun 2, 8:00 AM

      Price move: Yes price moved down by 14.3% in 24h

      June 7 · Polymarket

    • Price MoveJun 2, 8:00 AM

      Price move: Yes price moved down by 11.8% in 24h

      June 15 · Polymarket

    • Price MoveJun 2, 7:00 AM

      Price move: Yes price moved down by 14.3% in 24h

      June 7 · Polymarket