US Election

    Speaker of the House after the midterms?

    Hakeem Jeffries leads by 95 pts

    1. Hakeem Jeffries#197%
    2. Pete Aguilar#22%
    3. Katherine Clark#32%
    #4 Mike Johnson1%#5 Tom Emmer1%+2 more
    Resolves
    Jan 17, 2027
    Volume
    $302.4K
    24h
    $76.8K
    Liquidity
    $171.3K
    Candidates
    7
    kalshiPolymarket USPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US3 venues · 7 markets

    Who’s winning

    • Hakeem Jeffries97%
    • Pete Aguilar2%
    • Katherine Clark2%
    • Mike Johnson1%
    • Tom Emmer1%
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    Signals

    Quiet market: no big moves or venue gaps in the last 24 hours.

    Every candidate, every venue

    3 venues
    ChanceBest
    Hakeem Jeffries$259.3K vol97%—Polymarket US95¢fee unknown
    Pete Aguilar$5.9K vol2%▼ 1Polymarket US1¢fee unknown
    Katherine Clark$18.5K vol2%—Polymarket US1¢fee unknown
    Mike Johnson$8.3K vol1%—Polymarket US1¢fee unknown
    Tom Emmer$2.0K vol1%—kalshi1¢2¢ after fees
    Jim Jordan$6.0K vol<1%—Polymarket US1¢fee unknown
    Steve Scalise$2.4K vol<1%—Polymarket US1¢fee unknown

    Yes pays $1 if it’s right. Chance is the venues’ consensus; green marks the cheapest venue after fees, and every price opens that venue’s market.

    Where venues disagree

    Yes price
    • Polymarket US
    • Kalshi
    • Polymarket (global)
    • Consensus

    Same candidate, different price: buy where it’s cheapest.

    Smart money

    Biggest trades

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    In the news

    How each venue settles it

    kalshiKalshi

    If Hakeem Jeffries wins the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Full rules on Kalshi ↗
    Polymarket USPolymarket US

    Speaker of the House in the 120th Congress?

    Full rules on Polymarket US ↗
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarket (global)

    This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

    Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗

    About this market

    This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

    Category
    Politics
    Resolves
    Sun, January 17, 2027
    kalshiPolymarket USPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USCompared across 3 venues

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