Geopolitics

    Riksdag approves Swedish Prime Minister by...?

    Before Jul 1, 2027 leads by 15 pts · 5 candidates at 5%+

    1. Before Jul 1, 2027#196%
    2. Before Feb 1, 2027#281%
    3. December 31, 2026#369%
    #4 Before Dec 19, 202659%#5 Before Dec 1, 202648%+1 more
    Resolves
    Jul 1, 2027
    Volume
    $10.8K
    24h
    $104
    Liquidity
    $8.7K
    Candidates
    6
    kalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US2 venues · 6 markets

    Who’s winning

    • Before Jul 1, 202796%
    • Before Feb 1, 202781%
    • December 31, 202669%
    • Before Dec 19, 202659%
    • Before Dec 1, 202648%
    Polymarket USPolymarket USCFTC-regulated

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    Signals

    4 signals
    1. December 31, 202624h
      ▼ 10¢ in 24hPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US
    2. Before Dec 1, 202624h
      ▼ 10¢ in 24hkalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US
    3. Before Dec 19, 202624h
      ▼ 5¢ in 24hkalshi
    4. Before Dec 1, 202624h
      7¢ apart across venueskalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US

    Every candidate, every venue

    2 venues
    ChanceBest
    Before Jul 1, 2027$491 vol96%▼ 2kalshi99¢100¢ after fees
    Before Feb 1, 2027$0 vol81%▼ 4kalshi85¢86¢ after fees
    December 31, 2026$1.3K vol69%▼ 10Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US77¢78¢ after fees
    Before Dec 19, 2026$42 vol59%▼ 5kalshi63¢65¢ after fees
    Before Dec 1, 2026$9.0K vol · 7¢ apart48%▼ 10kalshi47¢49¢ after fees
    Before Nov 13, 2026$5 vol5%▼ 2kalshi7¢8¢ after fees

    Yes pays $1 if it’s right. Chance is the venues’ consensus; green marks the cheapest venue after fees, and every price opens that venue’s market.

    Where venues disagree

    Yes price
    • Before Dec 1, 20267¢buy kalshi
    • Before Jul 1, 20272¢buy kalshi
    • Kalshi
    • Polymarket (global)
    • Consensus

    Same candidate, different price: buy where it’s cheapest.

    Smart money

    Biggest trades

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    In the news

    How each venue settles it

    kalshiKalshi

    If the Riksdag approves a new Prime Minister in a vote on the Speaker's proposal before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Full rules on Kalshi ↗
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarket (global)

    This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Riksdag approves a candidate for Prime Minister proposed by the Speaker by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” To qualify, a Speaker's proposal for Prime Minister must be approved in a Prime Minister vote (statsministeromröstning) in the Riksdag within this market's timeframe. A proposal is approved unless an absolute majority of the…

    Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗

    About this market

    This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Riksdag approves a candidate for Prime Minister proposed by the Speaker by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” To qualify, a Speaker's proposal for Prime Minister must be approved in a Prime Minister vote (statsministeromröstning) in the Riksdag within this market's timeframe. A proposal is approved unless an absolute majority of the members of the Riksdag vote against it. A proposal naming the incumbent Prime Minister, Ulf Kristersson, will count if approved in such a vote. Only a Prime Minister vote held after the September 13, 2026 Riksdag election, or after any subsequent election, will qualify. Rejected proposals will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Sweden or the Riksdag; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

    Category
    Politics
    Resolves
    Thu, July 1, 2027
    kalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USCompared across 2 venues

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