Pete Hegseth departure announced?

Before Jan 1, 2027 leads by 15 pts · 2 candidates at 5%+

2 venues · 2 markets

Who’s winning

Top 2, each at its busiest venue

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2 signals

2 venues

Chance

Best

Before Jan 1, 2027$213.0K vol · 5¢ apart22%▲ 722¢17¢

17¢fee unknown

Before Dec 1, 2026$227.7K vol7%▲ 18¢–

8¢9¢ after fees

Yes pays $1 if it’s right. Chance is the venues’ consensus; green marks the cheapest venue after fees, and every price opens that venue’s market.

Yes price

Same candidate, different price: buy where it’s cheapest.

Biggest trades

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Kalshi

If Pete Hegseth leaves (or announces he will leave) as Secretary of Defense before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket US

Pete Hegseth Announced Out as Secretary of War?

Before Apr 2026

Compared across 2 venues